Stocks Daily Discussion

[pftq]

Let go of the puts this morning.  Seems like we're just channeling and gapping down each morning.  Will pick up a few puts to hedge the calls again at end of day.
 
 
 
Also picked up GMCR calls this morning.  They seem to easily jump >100% in either direction so I'll pick up puts to hedge when we get closer to end of day (hopefully cheaper).

[pftq]

Meh, got my puts on both positions at about equal price to calls - wanted to squeeze it a little cheaper but oh well.

SPY is getting tighter in the week's wedge.  Personally think we'll break to the upside of it to get that EOY rally, but we'll see.  Whichever way we break should be strong so I'll stick straddles for now.

[pftq]

Ok I couldn't help myself.  Added a few more calls below SPY 124 - it just looked so cheap at the bottom of the daily wedge.

Still have enough puts that if we do gap down and start selling heavily, it'll more than make up for the SPY calls.

[pftq]

123-123.5 range on SPY another floor it seems.  Cashed out on puts (+100%) and loaded more on calls.

GMCR calls also up almost 100%.

[pftq]

Bah, stopped out of SPY after 123 broke.  Gotta not sell off my puts completely and break my straddle. Going to reset at end of day before close (equal put/calls) on next week's options.

[pftq]

A couple weeks ago, I posted about a potential inverse H&S on FAS working a right shoulder for the holiday season.

Kind've forgot about it in the course of things but it seems like we're dipping just enough to get that right shoulder right now.  This means nothing if we break down further and ruin it, but it's interesting to see if we do confirm it (and thus get the EOY rally so many seem to expect, followed by a breakdown in 2012).

Here's an updated chart:


Right now, I'm in another SPY straddle in at 122, slightly weighted toward the long side.

Nice bounce today, almost 200 points on DOW.  I'm expecting we'll see another day or two of continuation before coming back down again.

Going into December, I'm mainly watching this inverse H&S formation on FAS.  I realize FAS is not a market indicator, but I notice that it's generally been easier for me to gauge the market using it.  Maybe it smoothes out some of the more extreme fluctuations or something.


^Basically what I said about a couple more days or so of uptrend, then a pullback further for the right inverse shoulder (the 3rd dip in the W) before we go up more strongly.

For the longer term, I'm still thinking we'll be up overall in Q4 before we seriously head down in 2012.  If the chart above holds the next few weeks, it should confirm that.

Edit: Just keeping an eye on currencies here - we might go into that third dip sooner without more uptrend, so I'd watch for an entry on the short side rather than try to time the bounce.

[pftq]

Added a few 205x calls at $3.40 on AMZN at 201 as well.  AMZN's right at 200-day SMA, seems to be good support around here and should at least bounce by next week.

[pftq]

Added a few 205x calls at $3.40 on AMZN at 201 as well.  AMZN's right at 200-day SMA, seems to be good support around here and should at least bounce by next week.

[pftq]

Ouch on market today - keeping straddles on all positions at close seems to be working well though.  Puts on AMZN went up 180% whereas the calls dipped about 90%.  SPY is about even so no loss/gain there but still holding.

I'm just hesitant to go full short because of what happened going into the Euro decision (selling off, then it passes and the market rallies to Oct highs).

[pftq]

Deviating from the current strat a bit.  Holding another straddle on SPY at 120x going into close in anticipation of the Super Committee event.  Also picked up a few calls (no puts) at 14x when FMCN was under $13; it looked too much like the EK thing to me.

[pftq]

Straddle on SPY finally paying off - was starting to think maybe we won't get any large swings before Thanskgiving.

Exited the calls at 70% loss but am ~80% up on the puts side - just waiting now.

I might re-enter a few calls incase we get a bounce Friday but I'm expecting at least during the intraday that we keep heading down a bit.  Both STO and MACD are pointing downwards... though STO is a rather oversold at the moment - we'll see.

[pftq]

Cashed out at open.  Netted 50% on the straddle on FAS at 50x I re-entered last Wednesday.

Looking for a pullback to get back into calls (unless the market dies after this ).  Entered back in a few when FAS dipped a bit under 54.

[pftq]

Market continuing up nicely... though I probably should have gotten calls on SPY or DIA since financials have generally been lagging.

[pftq]

Market jumps 400 pts today.  Love the calls I had (+200%).
Still wish I bought SPY instead of FAS though - they went 500%. <_<

[pftq]

Thinking the next resist here is the 126-128 we had during the brief rally above the Aug-Sept. channel.
Exited most of my earlier calls (too deep in the money now to increase that much more) and picked up a few 126 SPY calls.  Will add more at end of day so I get less options decay.