pftq.com

pftq's Stocks and Investing

Trading Guide

Tech Trader

Discuss current stocks, trades, and anything else on a day-to-day basis here...
Viewing as guest. Login or Register.

27 unique view(s)

January 13th, 2012

January 13th, 2012 8:04:55 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Out of SWN at open of $29, +20%.
Gapdown was a nice surprise; good thing I went with a straddle but I had a bullish bias so I only bought enough calls to cover the cost of the weekly calls going to zero.  Going to hold for a bit longer till we're out of the morning consolidation to see if I can get a better exit.
Still holding OCR puts; it bounced but didn't break out of its downtrend from yesterday.
January 13th, 2012 8:26:42 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Very nice sell off for puts - out at SPY 127.75 just now, gain of +130% (more than cover the calls now, if just by a bit).

Waiting for a retrace that usually starts at about 10:45 EST to unload my calls at a better price; even if they go to zero, I'd be fine though. Smiley
January 13th, 2012 10:30:07 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Into JEF calls at stock $16.20.  First saw it at $15.90 and then watched it spike to $16.70; don't know why my reaction time was so slow.
JEF

Out of SPY Feb calls at SPY 128.50; costs more to sell the weekly calls than to just let them expire so I"ll hold them on the remote chance the market bounces back above 129.0
January 13th, 2012 1:19:40 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Not quite so remote chance, thanks to the short covering end of day... Out of SPY weekly calls with SPY at 128.80; might spike higher but already got out at -89% instead of -99% so I'm content (this being combined with the SPY weekly puts sold earlier at +130%).  Picked up Feb puts on SPY at the same time.  Candle for today actually looks bullish if we close near here, but I don't mind holding at this entry and will average down as necessary.

Sad part is I forgot about POT while watching SPY.  It didn't quite dip as low as I wanted for re-entry and already broke out past the $44 resist without me. Sad

So right now just holding SPY Feb puts, OCR Feb puts, and JEF Feb calls.
January 13th, 2012 1:44:19 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
TSLA selling off hard right now ... picked up a few 25x calls on the dip to $24.05 for a bounce play.
TSLA
27 unique view(s)

January 12th, 2012

January 12th, 2012 1:15:54 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Ugh, got up late today - have to stop working on projects so late the night before.
Missed the morning spike to SPY 129.60 - that would have been a beautiful exit on all my calls.  SWN also dipped down to $29.0 but recovered to near $30 so I guess I have to wait another day on that.

Picked up OCR Feb puts when the stock was at $33.80; stock now testing $33 support.  Added a straddle on SPY weeklies at end of day because of bollingers pinching, while reducing on the SPY Jan+Feb calls and letting go of MJN Jan calls at breakeven (held too long, decay catching up).

Got out of POT near end of day as well at $43.60; looks like an ascending triangle forming against $44 resist - a very wide one, so I'm planning to get back in when it dips again to about $42.50.
27 unique view(s)

January 11th, 2012

January 11th, 2012 11:27:16 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
USG at $13, 100% gain.  Calls on POT, MJN, SPY also doing well.  Planning to get out soon though.

Picked up a few Feb 30x puts on SWN at $30.10; planning to average if it bounces or add if it breaks below $30.  Just getting in a little early now so that I'm not full long on my portfolio.
January 11th, 2012 2:03:51 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Out of USG at stock $13.40, about 100% gain.  SWN now dipping to $29.90 but the puts are going down a bit as well, so I'm holding off on averaging until I figure out why that's the case.

SPY, MJN, and POT still look ok so holding calls on those till tomorrow.  POT is right at resistance though ($44), so if it doesn't break by tomorrow, I'm getting out.
27 unique view(s)

January 10th, 2012

January 10th, 2012 9:15:08 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Been doing more of the same the last two days, buying puts and selling calls above 128 and vice versa.  Today we finally broke out of the wedge so it's getting interesting, ended yesterday with a straddle so I didn't get caught out of position too much.  Sold the puts during the dip about 15 min ago.  Expecting markets will want to make one last push towards SPY 130 soon so I'm still holding my long positions.

Also watching USG right now at $12; looks good for an upward break so I might enter Feb calls.  Edit: Picked up 12x just now with USG at $12.05
27 unique view(s)

January 6th, 2012

January 6th, 2012 8:15:25 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Sold puts at SPY 127.40 and holding calls to sell later in the day.  Will add more SPY puts again above 128.
The pattern is almost exactly the same as yesterday (dip from open till about 10:07 EST and then move up rest of day).
26 unique view(s)

January 5th, 2012

January 5th, 2012 8:20:32 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Kept averaging down on puts each up-day; ended up moving them into 128x to avoid out-of-money decay.  Out of the puts this morning at SPY 126.5 - right at 10-day support.  Picked up January calls for the bounce.

Also holding SHLD 32.5x puts from when it was at $33; planning to get out if SHLD goes back above $30 or dips to $28.

Considering entries on POT, BKS, and MJN.
January 5th, 2012 9:26:23 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Into MJN 70x calls when the volume picked up at MJN $71.50.

SHLD puts paired with SPY calls working very nicely; market's recovered to 127.30 already while SHLD keeps going down.
January 5th, 2012 10:16:49 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Into POT 42.5x Feb. calls with the stock at $42.80, on the basis that it's holding its very longterm (several years out) support and short term also looks good (upward break of wedge).

So currently in:
- SPY leap calls 126x (short term play)
- MJN leap calls 70x
- POT leap calls 42.5x
- SHLD leap puts 32.5x

Looking to sell SHLD soon and add short/put positions again later for long term, in particular SPY and maybe MCP, SFLY.

Edit: Sold puts with SHLD at 29.50 (+40%).  Adding SPY 128x puts each time it makes a high above 128.
26 unique view(s)

December 28th, 2011

December 28th, 2011 1:25:30 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Out of puts this morning at 30%.  Waiting for a retrace on the markets before choosing between puts on SPY, SHLD, or MCP.

Edit: Moved back to January SPY puts at 124x.
December 28th, 2011 2:13:59 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Probably going to keep shorting the market the next few months.  Am expecting the market to get relatively volatile once the holidays are over.  Markets are near resistances right now, so it's a nice entry if you just want to buy FAZ or something and hold for a few weeks.
26 unique view(s)

December 27th, 2011

December 27th, 2011 8:10:13 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Still holding weekly calls.  Moved SPY leap puts over to SHLD 27x instead.
December 27th, 2011 1:50:14 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Decay is coming up quicky on the calls so I dumped them - holding just SHLD puts now.
SHLD
26 unique view(s)

December 23rd, 2011

December 23rd, 2011 7:34:54 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Entered a few leap SPY puts on the opening spike this morning.  Will add more if we end up higher.  Might add a few calls for next week to hedge if bb bands pinch.
December 23rd, 2011 1:18:47 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Someone remind me to hold my SPY calls till 126 next time I say it's going to 126.  Got a nice average on puts though either way.
December 23rd, 2011 1:43:42 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Adding weekly calls to complete somewhat a straddle (more time to recoup on the puts though).  Looks like we have more room to move up before pulling back.
15 unique view(s)

December 22nd, 2011

December 22nd, 2011 8:03:26 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
SPY at 125.  Up 60% overall now.

I still see resistance near 126 right now, but I might get out before then. If we move up slow enough, the downward trending resistance will hit under 126.
December 22nd, 2011 1:07:30 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Out of calls at SPY 125.21 (+80%) - not entering puts yet until we get clearer resistance or some kind of bb pinch on the charts.

Watching these other stocks at the moment as they've had good movement lately but not buying unless there's a good entry.
SLXP
AKAM
BA
PHH
MJN
BBBY
15 unique view(s)

December 21st, 2011

December 21st, 2011 1:37:04 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Pullback just as forementioned.  Added more calls on the dip.  Very nice that the later expiration didn't decay much.  Should probably do this from now on as the decay previously has been adding into the costs whenever I buy end-of-week expiration.
December 21st, 2011 1:39:19 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Market already spiking.. up 30% overall but don't want to risk a daytrade to close here.
15 unique view(s)

December 20th, 2011

December 20th, 2011 7:42:14 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Nice gap yes? Smiley Up 85% on calls and down 50% on puts.  One of these days I should just go towards the "leaning" side and avoid the hedging but I feel like that'll bite me.
December 20th, 2011 1:27:45 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Picked up some SPY 126x calls for the end of the month.  Just watching the daily chart here and looks like it'll at least test the upper end of the channel again.  No hedging this time - going to see if picking the expiration far out enough avoids being killed by decay if we get a pullback along the way.



Also thinking of getting January puts when we do get to the upper bound.
15 unique view(s)

December 19th, 2011

December 19th, 2011 11:04:51 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Very sharp pinch coming in on GLD.  Leaning bullish on this one.

15 unique view(s)

December 16th, 2011

December 16th, 2011 11:07:38 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Very nice pinch setup on GMCR if anyone wants to play a straddle on it with next week's options.  Leaning on the long side personally but it doesn't hurt to cover both sides just incase the market crashes.


Haven't been trading lately because of finals.  Lips Sealed  Hopefully not too busy with holidays coming up but we'll see.
16 unique view(s)

December 9th, 2011

December 9th, 2011 2:12:54 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Averaged down on calls yesterday to lock in gains on puts; probably should've just reset the straaddle though as a lot of value got lost to decay.

Calls hit around 125% today and puts got wiped to 0.  Was going to sell at SPY 126.30 but found out the broker automatically put in an order to market sell all my calls at about 125.98.  Shouldn't even be legal - there was about 15 minutes left before close (the auto-sell order was put in at 3:37 EST).  Bah, no more holding options so close to expiration.

Picked up 45x calls for DMND instead when the stock was at $39.  Market is right at resistance, so I'm just going to play individual stocks until we get more direction.

JCOF also just broke out on nice volume today.  Currently $.42, already 16% up from Wednesday.  Next resist is about $.50 and then $.65.
15 unique view(s)

December 7th, 2011

December 7th, 2011 8:25:07 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Currently +25% on the puts and -18% on calls.  Exited on calls and plan to sell puts when we dip lower today.

Bah, slightly heavier on calls though - need to stop deviating from the original plan.
December 7th, 2011 9:29:29 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Missed the dip down to 125 while walking to class... Bah, could have sold puts at 40% profit.  Going to see if we dip again later today; otherwise I'll cut my losses.
December 7th, 2011 10:30:17 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Stopped out of puts at 126.  Loaded back on calls <_<
Going to add puts back in at end of day or near 127 to reset my straddle.
December 7th, 2011 10:47:34 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
JCOF also building up the last few days.  Currently at $.36 - potential run if it can clear $.38 on good volume.
December 7th, 2011 12:11:38 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Picked up some SPY puts at SPY 126.24; little earlier than expected but resist seems pretty strong from 12/2.
December 7th, 2011 1:46:23 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Picked up the rest of the puts at 127.10; gotta stop breaking my strat mid-day and listen to myself.

Stopped out of puts at 126.  Loaded back on calls <_<
Going to add puts back in at end of day or near 127 to reset my straddle.
15 unique view(s)

December 6th, 2011

December 6th, 2011 12:31:10 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
30-min Bollingers pinching today so I'm going to go for another straddle near close.

Been watching the wedge form for today and adding calls near the bottom of it.  Added a few puts at the top, but I honestly think we're going to break upward on the wedge so I'm waiting for that to get the puts even cheaper.

December 6th, 2011 12:56:49 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Was slowly adding to more puts as SPY ran up toward 127 but stopped.  Think I'm just going to have a slightly heavier call side vs puts (which were entered cheap).  Doesn't really make sense to still go equal calls/puts if I'm expecting us to move up.  I might add a few at end of day instead if we move a lot higher and the puts are just dead cheap.
December 6th, 2011 3:05:46 PM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Should have stuck with the original plan to add more puts near the top. Would be up more with the market dipping at close today.

Need to stop deviating from the strat.
15 unique view(s)

December 5th, 2011

December 5th, 2011 8:01:47 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Into GMCR 65x calls at $0.25

Going to buy SPY calls when it dips later today; we broke last week's high, so we should have room to move towards 128-130.
December 5th, 2011 8:47:09 AM PST
Posted by pftq | #
pftq (Official) says in Stocks Daily Discussion...
Also, just to confirm this strategy works, if you set up the straddle last Friday with 125x calls and 126x puts (both ITM), you'd be up 60% on the calls right now and down 53% on the puts.  This is also assuming you buy/sell them at the same time and didn't time the puts better (ex sell at open before market rises 10:30-ish).  Bollingers weren't much of a pinch on Friday (which was why I didn't hold anything), but it's nice to see this still gives modest gains.

Just thought I'd share and outline the strategy I've been using the last few weeks to profit on the market no matter what direction the market goes.  That and incase I forget because I tend to forget what I say in the middle of the week.  Cheesy

This is almost a win-win strat IMO so feel free to use it yourself (and let me know how it goes Grin ).

Options Straddle on Volatile Markets
I'm mainly buying both calls and puts to form what's called a "straddle."  Basically you can lose 100% on one side but you count on the other going >100%; the best part is you don't have to care what direction, just the magnitude of the move.  For the index, I choose either SPY or FAS, depending on where I think the focus will be (read the news); SPY is general market while FAS leans toward financials.

This is a summary of the technical analysis I go through to set up the straddle:
- Check 30-min bollinger bands for pinch to see what days will gap. (last few weeks, it's pinched mid/end day and then gapped that night).
- Buy equal positions (in dollars, not contracts) on ITM calls/puts at end of day because decay eats up a lot during sideways movement intraday.
- Sell next morning, often at about 10:30-10:45am EST.  After 11am EST, market usually dips or trades sideways until ~3pm EST.

It's worked very nicely for me so far.  Usually count on the overnight gap being big enough for one side to go >100%.  If not, the losses are pretty small also (if the market doesn't gap enough or trades flat).  But just make sure to follow the strat consistently; I've had a few times where I was tempted to go long or short mid-day only to get the options much cheaper near the end of day (because of decay). -_-


(Notice the bollinger bands pinch on exactly the days there will be gaps, whether up or down.)