Sell off today finally across all sectors in Tech Trader's portfolio and not just in Tech.


Still no daily bottom or RSI signals. I think that is most interesting and clearly shows how Tech Trader is different from quant or other algo systems. There are a couple 30 min bottoms (SMH today and XOP yesterday) but very timid compared to the massive cluster of daily time frame buys I used to see in 2012, 2013, 2014.

While all other algos might be buying the dip, Tech Trader is side-stepping this entirely and actually continuing to get shorter (64% net long now vs its 88% average).  Its performance despite being net long is barely hampered by the current sell off.

The sell off today, for Tech Trader at least, is almost exclusively the Technology sector.  Same as it has been for the last several weeks.  No other sector is moving anywhere near as much.


Re: consumer exposures, see below.  Even though the market is down a percent, the biggest gainers in the consumer sector are actually long positions.


More shorts lined up to be added today as well: CRUS, UL, etc.  It's also selling more longs again to further reduce net exposure.  Looks like Tech Trader is expecting a prolonged sell off here.

This thread that hasn't been posted in for almost 3 years is revived...

Some very cool observations with Tech Trader below to start:
- Tech Trader covered GM and shorted FCAU last week.
- Tech Trader has shorted 7 names in the past week and significantly trimmed long exposure.  RSI and bottom signals are quiet, as if it knows the market is shaky right now (covered EEM almost immediately on last week's bounce).  You can even see the exposure curves visibly tighten in the chart (longs going down, shorts rising):

- The names Tech Trader *is* buying now are all least likely to be affected by Greece: healthcare, consumer, etc.
- Market opened down as much as 1% today.  Tech Trader was up while being net-long.  End of discussion.

Sigh, my program is beating me.  I'm now obsolete.
https://www.pftq.com/stock_sys...

My Tech Trader program now automatically posts its trades to my virtual trading site as well.  Useful for me to keep track of what it's doing from my phone and whatnot.
https://www.pftq.com/stock_sys...

It's pretty much like another person trading my account for me now lol

Meanwhile comprehensive strategy is still short on SPY.  Will be hilarious if the next sell off coincides with the end of the world prediction date (12/21/2012).

Updated bollinger bands to highlight pinches in bold red.  Looks like we're forming one on SPY right now as well.  Should be interesting.


Also tentative long on LRCX based on trendlines.

Finally done with finals here - haven't looked at anything all week and still slowly taking things in haha

Comprehensive strat on SPY is still short.  Great bounce down from resistance, love how we sold off from QE announcement again.  MACD is still bullish though and the volume isn't strongly indicative of a top.


Automated trades did ok, about flat this week with a mix of losses/gains.  Need to restrict the number of RSI trades since a lot of them seemed correlated (right together, wrong together,).  Trendline break trades helped even things out for the most part, namely trades on MU, AMRN, A, and DKS.  FCX didn't play out at all - probably should put a filter on gap-downs (actually  have one on the strat but it's for extreme % gap-downs, which didn't trigger on FCX).

Not much change in market conditions so far, just more stocks continuing to run up against resistance and geting flagged as short opportunities.  Am prepared to flip long if they break though.

Only one new trade today from the automation.  FCX Dec. 31x Puts at $1.20

Comprehensive strategy will cover and go long again if we close this low (close-dependent signals now labeled in orange).

HTZ exited yesterday - was out all day and will want to follow that at some point today.


Also a tentative short on KSS.

Short signals from last week closed out on the dip in the first hour today.  SPY for example exited at $139.05.  Was worried this wouldn't play out but seems ok now. My comprehensive SPY strat is still short though, so I'm keeping a few longer-dated puts on SPY just to see where that goes.

Comprehensive strategy on SPY has also gone short now (joining the RSI onslaught of short signals from last week).  Scary since if this trade is wrong, it triggers a mistake on both strategies now. :p

As expected, tentative short on SPY also showed up now on reversion-based strategy.  Will watch the close to make sure it holds before acting on it.

Picked up a short signal on XLP via RSI.  It is the only short signal on any of the sectors/etfs though.  I'm guessing we see a gradual rotation of long positions to short over the next few trading days but just a guess on that part.

Great open today.  Planning on exiting DIA and XLU calls from RSI2 last Thursday some time today.



No exit signal for SPY calls from my comprehensive strategy yet but we'll see what happens end of day.

Looks like technicals predict the future again - 1 day before Congress announces "optimism"
Same thing happened with ECB in the summer, QE3, first unemployment number below 8%, etc.

Comprehensive SPY strategy has covered and gone long using the 135 support (so likely just expecting a bounce).  It can still change depending on the market close today, but just a heads up.  Timing is quite interesting - DIA and a few others have also triggered RSI2/Market-Bottom buy signals, not to mention the holiday rally usually starts around this time.  These are all <80% hitrate signals though, keep in mind.

Edit: Signal confirmed at close.

Lots of new lower trendline breaks following new lows on SPY.
Watch the close to make sure the signals hold though.
Unfortunately too busy with midterms here to trade them.

Comprehensive strategy added more short on SPY this past Friday.  I was out of town all weekend so I only just saw it.  Getting interesting since it seems to be coming out of the gate quite strongly (first live trade in October) and coincides with the onslaught of recent trendline short signals.

Every short signal I've been getting the last couple weeks basically played out.  Need to really take myself out of the picture and stop interfering with the trades.  Updated charts on the ones I posted before:
IWM Trendline Break from Oct.26

IWO Trendline Break from Oct.26

SPY Short via Comprehensive Strat from Oct.25


Just a ton of more trendline short signals today on the scans.  As usual, have to watch the close near end of day to confirm breaks, but just very disappointed at the moment.  Probably going to just stay on the sidelines until I have more time to actually watch the markets (lot of midterms + projects these few weeks until Thanksgiving).

GNW calls currently at $.30 from $.20; going to get out at either a break below $6.08 or a test of $6.60.

Picked up Dec. 45x calls on PCAR at $1.70

Out of DIA calls at $1.82 from $1.70
ALXN puts finally playing out; stock is at $93 from $95 call initial post.

DIA from a week back:


The lower trendline breaks on IWM/IWO last Friday that didn't hold into close ended up breaking anyway.  Picked up IWM Nov 81x puts at $1.40

This SPY signal was actually generated Friday, so I'm definitely noticing this one a bit late.  However, this strategy is the most comprehensive of the 3 I currently have, using all the indicators I know instead of just being led by either Trendlines or RSI.  The significance is that this strategy has not made a trade since June (long) when I first wrote it, so it's basically the first trade it's making since it was born. :O I'm very confused though why it shorted at such a low point; will be watching closely to see how it performs in real life now.


Altogether a very confusing past week for me so far.  We basically had short signals from support trendlines breaking across the board on the S&P individual stocks and on several sector indicies but at the same time, a few select indicies were oversold and marked as long for the RSI-driven strategy.  The addition of this third more complex strategy also weighing short on the SPY itself just makes me more confused.

More support breaks just now. Only valid if we don't rally back up into close of course.

Picked up Nov 31x calls on DIA at $1.70.  Oversold + bottom signal recently.  Only thing is I'm not sure how well the signal works for this symbol.  Again, only really picking this up as a hedge against all the Trendline short signals.